Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America

We simulate the short- and long-term distributional consequences of COVID-19 in four largest Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico. show that short-term impact on income inequality poverty can be very significant, but additional spending social assistance more than offsets effect Brazil. The offsetting is significant Argentina Colombia nil Mexico, where there has been no such expansion. find a universal basic would have produced same reduction gap as actual policies cost slightly benefited poor (the nonpoor) less (more). To project consequences, we estimate pandemic school achievement its intergenerational persistence. use information closures, educational mitigation policies, account for losses related to health shocks parental job loss. Our findings all countries strongly asymmetric affects particularly high-school completion rates children from disadvantaged families. simulations suggest seem minor containing these negative effects.   JEL Classification Codes: C63; D31; I24; I32; I38; J62